The British are Coming!... Home

The British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, pictured on the left, announced the phased withdrawal of UK troops from Iraq earlier today. He called for return of nearly 1,600 troops within the next few months and the removal of all British troops by early 2008. Britain’s force, which currently stands at around 7,000 men will transfer control of the southern part of Iraq, particularly the town of Basra to Iraqi security forces over the next year until full Iraqi authority is established.

The announcement has been met with praise from many different sources. President Bush and Vice President Chaney have stated that they viewed the decision as evidence that things in Iraq are starting to shape up. Many residents of Basra themselves have expressed happiness in seeing the British force there leave. Many parts of the British government have also expressed their approval of the decision.

Yet while it is a positive sign that the local commanders feel comfortable enough to transfer control back to the Iraqis, there are several factors that most news reports seem to be overlooking.

The 7,000 British troops represent the largest coalition fighting force in Iraq aside from the American forces. While their departure may represent a step forward for the Iraqi security forces, it also serves as a signal for other coalition allies to revisit the possibility of leaving the fight. In fact Denmark announced the removal of all of its forces as Britain made its announcement. While the U.S. had been bearing the brunt of this war for its duration, it seems hard to share the president’s optimism as two allies tap out of the fight.

Of further concern is the situation the British leave behind. While most accounts again are positive, there are reasons for concern. The city of Basra, which as shown on the right, is located at the southeastern edge of Iraq, will be significantly weakened. The city and most of the surrounding region is mainly identified as Shia in religious ethnicity. And while the city has not experience the levels of sectarian violence that areas such as Baghdad have suffered, it is certainly not free of bloodshed. It seems reasonable that groups such as Al Qaeda, which is a Sunni extremist group, might find the diminished coalition presence in Basra the perfect opportunity to ignite a new front in the ethnic conflict.

Also, Basra is one of the larger cities that lies a very short distance from the border with Iran. Aside from geographical proximity, the two are both Shai dominant regions. Given the recent concerns of Iranian contributions to the violence in Iraq it seems shortsighted to reduced coalition forces in the area.

What is more, it is overly optimistic to praise the removal of forces from Iraq when most non-government agencies still view the nation as too volatile to occupy. Groups such as Doctors Without Borders, who pride themselves as being international first responders to crisis situations, continue to avoid the country because of the nature of the violence. Suffice it to say, their absence underlines the seriousness of the issue. Though many groups are still attempting to aid in humanitarian efforts though other channels, the situation, at least medically, is still far from acceptable. According to the World Health Organization, Iraq has approximately 1 physician for every 2000 people, and facilities are insufficient to meet demand.

With factors like this in mind it seems disconcerting that a sizable military force is leaving Iraq. While it is always heartening to see soldiers come home safely, we have to wonder what they are leaving behind. If indeed the situation in Basra is secure enough to reduce the number of combat troops, would it not be a perfect opportunity to shift those forces to supportive non combat roles elsewhere in the nation. 1,600 troops could be immensely helpful in speeding up reconstruction of important infrastructure, or in securing areas for international aid groups to reenter the country.

As it stands I salute each returning British soldier, and give my heartfelt thanks to them, their families and their nation for all the contributions and sacrifices they have made. Truly, whatever your stance on the war may be, we must be thankful to have such a steadfast and dependable ally. However I can not help but fear that as British troops leave southern Iraq, the void they leave will be a magnet for insurgent and terrorist forces to expand the regional conflict, further hurt chances to improve medical and humanitarian relief to Iraq, and give Iran greater leverage in the region.