Thursday, April 5, 2007

A Narrowly Avoided Crisis

The safe return of British sailors should not erase the seriousness of the situation:

A potentially serious international crisis was averted yesterday as a group of British sailors and marines were released, after having been captured by the Iranian Revolutionary guard. Iran claims that the British forces were violating Iranian territorial waters as they conducted a search of a vessel bound for Iraq. Though Britain maintains that the group was clearly within Iraqi waters, Iran had held the sailors in a secret location for nearly two weeks, while rumors circulated of criminal trials. Then on Wednesday the 4th of April it was announced that all members of the party had been “pardoned” and were being released back to Britain.

With the release of the 15 British sailors and marines on the 4th there has been heavy media coverage of how well Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (pictured to the right with one of the captives), and the Iranian government handled the situation. Many news anchors and political commentators have claimed that Iran, “played its hand just right”, seemingly standing up to the west, avoiding a serious military confrontation and then appearing to be a benevolent host by returning the group as a “gift”. There has also been a great deal of airtime devoted to showing the sailors and marines meeting with President Ahmadinejad, shaking hands and thanking him for being so kind and merciful, while also admitting to violating Iranian waters. Indeed, remembering how long the Iranian hostage crisis on 1979 had dragged on, this turn of events is indeed surprising and in many respects the most beneficial outcome for all parties involved. However there are three things that should not be forgotten during the homecoming celebration for British service men and women.

The first and most widely noted point is that President Ahmadinejad was not likely the deciding party when the time finally came to release the hostages. While the President was able to seize the opportunity and make a very good public relations gesture, it must not be forgotten that he is not simply the benevolent smiling patriarch that has been shown repeatedly in the last 24 hours. For instance, even though this crisis is now over Ahmadinejad and Iran are continuing to operate against UN and IAEA nuclear protocols with each passing day. Second, the gratitude of the British sailors (shown on the left arriving in Britain) should be put into context. While it is clear that each captive was exceedingly grateful to be returning home it should be noted, as was made clear in an interview on NPR’s Talk of the Nation, that British sailors are trained to capitulate with their captors in the event of their imprisonment. One former British serviceman, Royal Marine Scott Fallon who had also been taken hostage in Iran noted that captured soldiers try to be as cooperative and friendly as possible in order to develop a personal bond with their captors, hopefully improving their treatment and ensuring their survival.

Third, it is still unclear whether Iran was justified in their action. The British maintain that they have GPS data that indicates that the incident took place within their rightful zone of influence. In the map the published, (pictured to the right) they note the orginaly postion declared by the Iranian Navy, whcih was later modified by military spokesperson. If this is the case then the Iranian Revolutionary Guard that made the arrests, were in effect committing and act of war, and then falsifing evidence of their actions. This is especially disturbing when it coupled with recent claims by the Bush administration that parts of the Revolutionary Guard are operating outside of the control of Iranian government. If this is the case then the events of the last few weeks are another indication that at least part of the military command in Iran is unconcerned about instigating a conflict with allied forces in the region. Given that there are still two American aircraft carriers, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the USS John C. Stennis, operating in the region, it is truly fortunate that this crisis did not spiral out of control. In short, while this crisis ended up smelling like a rose, we must not forget the bed of thorns that was very narrowly avoided in the process.

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